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Update: July 2011 summary
The market rally continues to the resistance of 12600 on the Dow Jones and 1360 on the SP500 as reference points in general and we expect a pull back to test the support level and provide continuation patterns.
Gold rallies and Silver confirms the move higher with an excellent rally while bonds become more risky and the equity markets find themselves at resistance levels once again and ripe for profit taking.
Update: June 2011 Summary
Another retracement with the markets coming under some major pressure to the 200SMA on the SP500 at 1255 before finding a bottom and bouncing.
Our SMS on Monday 27th June alerted members to a Global Market Event confirmed across numerous indicators that the markets had bottomed out and a bullish reversal rally was in line.
Our move was at least 10% from this timed Global Market Event within a week across multiple indices such as the Dow Jones, SP500, the JSE All Share top 40 index and Gold and Silver.
With roughly 45 points profit on the SP500, 350 points on the Dow Jones index and over 600 pts on the ALSI Top 40 index it was a fantastic week!
Update: May 2011 Summary
Again some rough riding on the markets.
Update: April 2011 Summary
Another fairly mixed month but with a negative sentiment.
March 2011
We took shorts on AGL and the ALSI Near contract for massive profits on the downside moves taking place from the 7th March.
We took a small profit on a bounce trade on AGL and BIL before they fell lower again.
We continue to wait for the commodities to settle at discounted prices before entering longs again.
At times, we may look for shorts on these stocks as well however prefer to take profits quickly and in the short term.
February 2011
We opened Long or buy positions on the 2nd and 3rd February
Exxaro | AGL | BIL | Kumba | Implats | Metorex | Merafe |
We waited patiently for the RESI and resource based stocks to retrace tot heir respective support levels and correlated with global market indicators we teach on our Trading Mentorship to open these positions with some of them already offering massive profits in just 2 days!
January 2011
All of our positions opened in mid November are now CLOSED in January for example:
Exxaro 20% | AGL 12.5% | BIL 5% | Kumba 14.5%| Implats 11% | Metorex 10% | All provided at least 10% profit per position (except Billiton) on the equity or full 100% return on your margin if using geared instruments like CFDs or Spreads or Futures.
We did take a 100c loss when ASPEN stopped out of our trade @ 9100c
The Baltic Dry Index made over 100% profit since November 2010!!!!
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Our resistance levels were reached at the 50ema plus major reversal patterns were displayed on the global stock markets and their charts signalling the time to swing positions and reverse our direction into a short sell.
We took shorts in major global stock market indices like the S&P 500, the DOW Jones and the DAX. It was also clear that most resource based stocks on our local JSE were also going to be affected by the market swing and reversal of direction.
GOLD was also closed as it failed to break out of the ascending triangle. We closed at $1230 although our original stop loss in profit was at $1210 at the 50ema as of the 2nd July 2010.
Be cautious now as a head and shoulders pattern is looming with a massive 1400 pts downside on the Dow Jones.
We pretty much went long on everything including GOLD.
At our monthly Wealth Skills Investors Meeting 1st June, we discussed how the chart patterns had displayed a Wave A, B & C that as now moving into a Micro Cycle wave of 5 counts. This is Elliot Wave theory talk and can be used to get an idea of the cycle the market is in right now.
The Market was making a Wave C end of May and found support the last week of May only to bounce to test our resistance in a Wave 4 retracement. Quite technical as it sounds it is all explained on our Advanced Technical Analysis workshop.
With the Wave 4 Bounce complete end of May/beginning of June we expected another downside wave which completes the entire micro cycle with a Wave 5 down. This took place on the 4th of June last week and was confirmed on the 3rd at closing time with majore shooting stars at resistance. We emailed a special mid week update to members discussing the opportunity to short the market on Friday with special focus on Platinum, Retailers and other resource based shares.
We focused on GOLD spot price for longs | buying from $1166 for a target of $1280 in the medium term. Our profit level could also be taken at $1250 already for aggressive traders. Longer swing traders may like to use the stop loss and wait for the momentum to grow.
A bounce at the support level of Wave C, the recent low of the markets, is likely to find resistance at the trend line along the tops.
As published in our recent newsletter to our club members, the market should experience a rally after the initial sell off on the 27th/28th April with a bounce which doesn't make a higher high. This is Wave B in the pattern. Then this Wave is followed by a challenge and break down | panic selling of the low created by Wave A. This pullback should find support at the major significant support of the 89-week moving average.
In anticipation of the global stock markets being overextended and very overbought we have been preparing for some type of pullback in the stock markets around the world. The final straw was the Greece Debt Crisis which hit hard on the 27th April which meant our market was closed for the public holiday.
It was the same day we held our monthly meeting for our Wealth Skills Investment Club members to discuss how our JSE would be hammered on the open of trade on the 28th April and likely to continue to be put under pressure especially in terms of the Resources.
While waiting for the next bullish rally the stock market may follow the Greek Debt Crisis pullback with a Wave 5 Elliot Count which suggests we could experience an A, B & C wave before the next bullish rally starts.
The Shanghai index indicated an extended downside for commodities and resource based stocks at the end of April. We headed the warning and closed most positions except two long term positions.
Gold we are bullish on until $1180 and then possibly after a small pullback give a go towards $1200 again.
Our March investment club meeting focused on how the RESI and special focus on PLATINUM shares were primed to make a bull rally move as Platinum breaks above $1700 with our target for the short term at $1782.
We had buy entries for impala platinum, northam, Anglo American, BHP Billiton, Kumba, Exxaro, Merafe and PSG, Old Mutual shares as well as others. Every one of these positions returned a positive result.
Warnings came in the closing hour of the 7th April of a sell off in the stock markets. We have highlighted for a number of weeks now that the markets were overbought and at high levels. Many of our swing positions had hit their targets this week and so are considered now closed. Good profits were achieved having followed the target prices and investment newsletter discussions.
The underlying trend in the global markets is still considered bullish with major long term indicators having confirmed in the month of March or in April. Want to know where to put your money next for good consistent returns? Come register for our stock market newsletter for investors and short term traders.
Our stock market newsletters recently discussed how the global stock market was quite tough to read over Feb 2010. We patiently waited for stocks to provide direction and buy entries while short term trading indices like the DOW, DAX and SP500 & our local ALSI top 40.
Just last week we issued our stock buys for Kumba, Aspen and others in conjunction with a major rally in gold, silver and global markets in the works which were all dollar dependent.
We've been appointed to facilitate a one day stock market course hosted by Standard bank for their Online Trading clients. We will spend about 3 days in Cape Town, 2 days in Durban and the remainder in either Pretoria or Johannesburg. The course can only be booked and registered for by opening an Online Share Trading account with Standard Bank and look up the Face-To-Face course schedule.
Our stock market investment newsletter and monthly subscription discussed very short term trades in the small cap Platinum mining companies such as East Plats, Jubilee & Anooraq. These stocks have illiquid trading volume so carry higher risk. Our entry was on the first Wednesday of the year and no longer than 7 days later we had closed all open positions for a minimum of 12% return followed by 35% and a massive 50% return in these three stocks.
We also discussed trading Northam Platinum from 4850c and closed the position at 5500c in January.
Major warning of Downside in the global markets end January 2010 as shooting star candle patterns appeared across the global stock markets and our local sectors at major resistance levels signalling the pullback currently in full swing.
Caution should be taken in the current market sell off. Short selling on indices like the DAX, FTSE, ALSI and US indices could bring good returns in the short term.
Our Advanced Stock Market Methodology course has been appointed by Standard Bank to their collection of excellent investing seminars and trading workshops for 2010!
We presented a 1-day condensed version of our Advanced Stock Market Methodology course on the 14th November to over 60 people at the venue at Glen Hove. The response was excellent. The course includes a combined presentation by Warrick Selzer and Craig Pilgrim using the integration of fundamental, technical and psychological aspects of investing.
Wealth Skills will be presenting the 1-day course from February 2010 until the end of the year. The Advanced Stock Market Methodology will run on a monthly basis.
Our Special stock market update sent to Wealth Skills Club members indicated that buying opportunities were available again at 13h00 on Friday the 27th November in the Resources sector with particular attention to Kumba, Northam, Lonmin, Anglo American & then PSG, Standard Bank to name a few of our favourites. Gold was also suggested as a buy at $1145 which has now run to $1222! See our Quick Performance section for detailed entry prices and profits!
I think you would agree that you too can reap the rewards of our stock market calls! Subscribe now to our Wealth Club membership!
Our latest stock market newsletter WARNED that the markets were all at resistance levels and that caution should be taken at these levels. That it would be better to wait for the market to pull back before taking any new positions or buys in the stock markets.
We also advised that this sell off would be an excellent time to pick up opportunities at reduced prices in strong performing sectors.
The World Economic Forum has issued a report on global competitiveness. South Africa did pretty well on financial market sophistication ranking 6th out of 133 countries. But what is really exciting is that one of the sub-categories in financial market sophistication is the regulation of securities exchanges and we came 2nd as reported in the in the Global Competitiveness Survey 2009-2010, compiled by the World Economic Forum, released in September 2009!
Our recent stock market newsletter described how the global markets as well as our local market were all approaching resistance levels within their respective channels. Technically speaking, this is a dangerous place to be trying to buy shares, stocks or going long. We made comment about sitting on the fence until a reasonable support is found to enable buying again.
Some long term positions are still holding with stop losses in place. See our quick performance section for more detail.
Our Advanced Stock Market Course training for Standard Financial Markets on 14th November in JHB to an audience of over 60 investors and traders. With a great group of clients we covered a 1-day summary of our 4-day course material. The group gave us a great response and we look forward to future stock market courses being offered to Standard Financial Markets clients in 2010!
Thanks for an excellent experience and all the best trading and investing!
We use various websites at different times to get the most up-to-date stock market news. A word of caution however about news is that generally the news is known before it actually comes out via the media. Big banks and institutions get wind of the breaking stories before the Bob-the-trader next door types like you and I do!
How do we beat the Goliath's in the stock market news battle? Essentially the charts hold their own press release! If you know what to look for and follow the charts you can pick up, with some experience, the market forces at play when it comes to the news.
Alternatively, just take out a put option either to protect against the negative downside of any stock market news or you can make use of a call option in times of expected good news. Or put orders in on either side of the channel break out that cancel the other trade automatically...
These are all part of the little guy's arsenal when it comes to trading the stock markets. The trick is learn to apply them effectively to consistently make money over time.
Let's list some of the places we use for news!
www.livecharts.co.uk
www.kitcometals.com
www.forex.com
finance.google.com